The past 2 months have been very good ones for the EUR/USD as it has pushed from 1.33 all the way to 1.38. $EURUSD, Eur/Usd / 1440 The recent price action in the daily has gotten rather interesting at these levels. First, the 1.38 level has proven to be ferociously defended, first in late October, the again in mid and late December. What's telling was the spike higher through that level which was not sustained. With a new month, and a new year, is it time for a bit of a pullback for the EUR? Currently we find ourselves with a very nice support pivot at 1.3625, which like 1.38 has held strong during the 2nd half of December. For the bearish case, the pair did manage to crack an upward sloping support trendline, and after the false breakout to the top has put in a fairly strong bearish candle today. The key then for the bears would be to drive price below the support and turn that support level to resistance. On the other hand, for the bulls, the pair would need to clear the 1.38 level - this would come via some USD weakness or EUR strength. My macro bias leans towards a stronger USD because of its better economy, the start of Fed tapering, and the possibility that the ECB will do more to help.