Today's session continued a common theme since Friday's NFP report - which is a weaker USD weaker across the board. What gives?Are Market Participants Pushing Tapering Expectations Into The Future?Well, the main factor we have to consider then is that this bout of USD dumpage started after the NFP jobs report, so what did its tell us? The weaker than expected report implies that the economy may not be growing jobs at the pace Bernanke and the rest of the FOMC believed it was when they starting making their tapering intentions known in May/June. Up until the NFP report, the US economic data looked relatively strong, and the expectation was that tapering would start in September. The outlook seems cloudier now and the dumping of USD tells me that market participants are pushing into the future the start date for taper - perhaps to December. As a result those that were betting on a stronger USD on the back of earlier Fed action have likely been covering their longs during this week. With macro data improving little by little in Europe and a at a more briskly pace in the UK, both the EUR and GBP have used this period of USD weakness to post 1-month highs (the CHF is also joining the party). In addition, with China deciding to undertake a "mini-stimulus" of sorts by injecting liquidity into its banking system, that has helped to underpin the NZD and even the beat-up AUD to press their advantage against the USD as well. And I've already posted a couple of stories this week about the JPY's strength vs the USD. In other words, its a dump USD party and everyone's invited (except the CAD).A Quick and Dirty Analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY) What interesting to me is that the US bond market, especially the 10-year has barely budged all week. Doldrums of August to blame? Perhaps. The question now is how long does this period of a soft USD last? Market participants will focus their attention to any data on employment - like weekly jobless claims - for clues as well as comments from Fed officials. It could also just be some shifting in positioning that works its way through, and then those same USD bulls return again. In the daily chart of the Dollar Index above, we see that volatility has certainly picked up the last 3 months, with 3 distinct swings (downswing in late May/early June, an upswing in the second half of June, and a downswing throughout July and into August) phases. With the index falling below support at 81.45, there is further scope for the USD to decline, before it meets an upward sloping level of support, or pivot lows from mid-June. The RSI also, while near the 40 level, is not yet in oversold territory in this time-frame. The index has also cleared all of its EMA's (most recently the 200SMA in black) denoting a bearish posture. To sum up my thoughts here, until we get some data that shows job gains are to the Fed's liking then we should keep a bearish macro bias for the USD because of the shifting expectations around the start of tapering. That would mean fading any USD rallies, and generally looking at USD crosses where the dominant trade ideas involve a weaker USD. - Nick